TAPAH – As voters in the Ayer Kuning constituency head to the polls today, all eyes are on whether Barisan Nasional (BN) can maintain its stronghold, a position it has held for nearly four decades.
The Perak state seat has been under BN since its creation, and while the coalition is widely expected to retain it, observers say the focus this time is not just about winning, but whether BN can hit the 18,000-vote target, seen as a benchmark for the unity government’s strength.
This by-election follows the passing of BN’s incumbent, Ishsam Shahruddin, 58, who died of a heart attack on February 22. It features a three-cornered contest between BN’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Abd Muhaimin Malek, and Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s (PSM) KS Bawani.
The result, however, is unlikely to change the Perak state assembly’s makeup, which remains under a BN-PH unity government, despite its slim seven-seat majority before Ishsam’s passing.
Political analysts Azmi Hassan and Chin Yee Mun told Scoop that BN is poised to retain the seat it held for 39 years, potentially with a larger majority, thanks to votes from Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters for Yusri – but Chin noted that the coalition must focus on consolidating support among Malay voters to secure a decisive victory.
However, PN, appears to be casting doubt on whether BN can secure sufficient Malay support for a guaranteed victory. Perak PN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu said some voters remain uneasy about Umno’s partnership with DAP, which he describes as the “main pillar” in PH.
“I can see that many traditional Umno voters will support PN for this by-election. However, the biggest hurdle will be getting voters to turn out and cast their ballots,” Faizal told Scoop.
Meanwhile, think tank Ilham Centre, in a report, said that while BN likely has no issue retaining the seat, the key question is whether PH’s partnership will boost BN’s vote share to the 18,000 target, touted by Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad.
“This target exerts direct pressure on both BN and PH’s campaign machinery to prove the partnership’s effectiveness, though most respondents feel it will be difficult to achieve,” the think tank said in its report.
PN has consistently proven capable of challenging Umno in its stronghold, steadily increasing its vote share in recent elections. For example, PAS secured 2,993 votes in 2018, increasing to 6,812 in 2022. If this trend continues, PAS could further boost its vote share today.
Both Azmi and Chin warned that BN must brace for a low turnout, which has often worked against incumbents in past by-elections. Ilham Centre also noted that young voters seem unenthusiastic, with interviews from voters in Klang Valley, Penang, Ipoh, and Teluk Intan revealing little interest in returning to vote.
There are 31,897 registered voters in this semi-rural constituency, with 56% Malay, 22% Chinese, 14% Indian, and 8% other ethnicities. The constituency is one of two state seats under the Tapah parliamentary constituency.
Indian Voter Sentiment
National issues often shape the outcome of state by-elections. Azmi pointed out that recent controversies – such as the relocation of the 130-year-old Dewi Sri Pathrakaliamman temple in Kuala Lumpur and the Jalur Gemilang misprint incident involving two Chinese-language newspapers – could influence voter sentiment.
Chin, when asked about the potential influence of the KL temple issue on Indian voters, said only a small number might support PSM in protest, but the majority are likely to stay loyal to BN and PH.
He opined that they are unlikely to shift to PN due to its messaging and image, which remains largely unappealing to non-Malay constituents.
Tapah MP Datuk Seri M. Saravanan was reported to have expressed confidence that Indian voters in Ayer Kuning would not boycott the polls over the temple issue, noting that he had taken steps to address the matter and reassure voters.
Local issues have become a focal point in this by-election, particularly the controversy surrounding illegal pig farms in Ayer Kuning, a Muslim-majority area. PN has been championing this issue, with Muhaimin pledging to shut down illegal pig farms failing to meet licensing conditions should PN win.
Faizal stressed that PN’s focus on the legality of these farms and the environmental risks they pose is a major concern, particularly with the potential for river pollution.
“This is a major concern not only for Muslims but for everyone. We are asking the state government to act on this matter. Why are they being quiet?” he said.
Previously, Perak’s human resources, health, Indian community affairs, and national integration committee chairman A. Sivanesan said the state government had not approved any new pig farms in Muslim-majority areas, noting that most existing farms are long-established operations on private land, set up before modern farming guidelines, Bernama reported.
PSM’s Second Bid
This by-election also marks PSM’s second attempt to contest the seat, with Bawani stating that the party aims to perform better this time after forfeiting her election deposit in the 2022 general elections.
She told Scoop that PSM is contesting despite the odds, with the goal of disrupting BN’s long-standing grip on the constituency and offering voters a credible third option after nine terms of BN rule and PN’s divisive ethnoreligious rhetoric.
Bawani secured only 586 votes in the 2022 general elections, a five-way contest. To improve her chances this time, her campaign is focusing heavily on social media, targeting young voters and new allies such as Muda, Urimai, and the Malaysian Advancement Party (MAP).
Whether these strategies will help PSM fare better in Ayer Kuning will be clear once the ballots are counted today. – April 26, 2025