KUALA LUMPUR – Voter turnout for the recent Mahkota by-election was marginally lower than the turnout recorded for the seat during the Johor state elections of 2022, according to a local think tank.
Barisan Nasional’s Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah secured 27,995 votes, significantly outpacing Perikatan Nasional’s Mohamad Haizan Jaafar, who garnered only 7,347 votes.
Syed Hussien’s winning margin of 20,658 votes is four times greater than that of his predecessor, the late Datuk Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain, who won by a majority of 5,166 votes.
In its post-election analysis, Selangor-based Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) reported that the 53.84% turnout in the by-election was just 3.56% lower than the 57.4% recorded in the 2022 state polls.
“It is interesting to note that there turnout rates between the by-election and the 2022 elections were closely similar with a difference of around 3.56%.
“The lower turnout rate could have been caused by outstation Mahkota voters who are based in Singapore, Johor Bahru and Kuala Lumpur who did not go back to their hometown to cast their votes,” said IDE.
IDE also highlighted the turnout by ethnicity, noting that Malay voters were well-represented, with 61% turning up at the polls, compared to just 49% of Chinese voters and 48% of Indian voters.
These percentages are largely in line with the figures from the 2022 state election, the think tank added.
Furthermore, IDE emphasised that the Barisan Nasional-Pakatan Harapan alliance in this by-election benefited BN through a transfer of votes from PH supporters, particularly among Chinese voters, who remain staunch backers of the coalition due to the post-GE15 political partnership.
“The BN-PH coalition has a combined support of 72% from the 2022 elections (results). (This election ) saw Malay support increase for BN by 4% when it obtained 76% votes in this by-election.
“Meanwhile, Malay support for PN has declined by 1%.”
The think tank attributed BN’s success in retaining its core supporters to its campaign strategy, which focused on micro-level engagement with key voters, reducing the reliance on large-scale ceramah events—a tactic similarly employed in the Nenggiri by-election.
PH also played a role in the campaign by organising targeted ceramah sessions aimed at maintaining the enthusiasm needed to rally its supporters to vote for BN, IDE concluded. – September 30, 2024