TAPAH – Barisan Nasional (BN) is poised to retain the Ayer Kuning state seat in the upcoming by-election this Saturday with a potentially larger majority, but analysts say the coalition will need to focus on consolidating support among Malay voters to secure a decisive victory.
Political analyst Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara and Associate Professor Chin Yee Mun of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Utar) both noted that BN, through Umno, has held the seat since 1986, and with backing from Pakatan Harapan (PH), is in a strong position to increase its vote margin.
“I think the majority (gained by BN) will go beyond what it got during the last state election, which is 2,213. So it can reach up to 5,000 majority in this (time around),” Azmi said when contacted.
Chin echoed similar sentiments, pointing out that with PH’s support, BN should have no major concerns regarding non-Malay votes. He said opposition contenders Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) are unlikely to make a significant impact among non-Malay voters.
“The main focus will be the fight to get the Malay votes,” Chin said. “The Malay voters in this seat seem to favour Umno, which was visible in the past elections, and there is no pressing issue for them to swing. Therefore, I think BN will win with probably a bigger percentage of votes.”
The April 26 by-election will feature a three-cornered contest between BN’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, PN’s Abd Muhaimin Malek, and independent candidate Bawani. The by-election was called following the death of incumbent Ishsam Shahruddin, 58, who succumbed to a heart attack on February 22.
In the 2022 state election, Ishsam secured 9,088 votes and won with a 2,213-vote majority in a five-way race against PH’s Major (Rtd) Dr Mohd Nazri Hashim (6,875 votes), PN’s Muhammad Noor Farid Zainal (6,812), Bawani (586), and Pejuang’s Maziah Salim (105).
Low turnout a persistent concern
Despite projections of a BN victory, both Azmi and Chin cautioned that low voter turnout remains a significant risk — a trend observed in several recent by-elections, which often disadvantages the incumbent.
“The overall national sentiment among the Malay voters towards BN is now changing and is not as hostile as it was in the 15th general elections (GE15). If the number of turnout among the Malay voters is low, it will affect BN,” Chin said.
He also warned that low turnout among non-Malays could impact both BN and PH, particularly as non-Malay voters are expected to support BN due to its alliance with PH in the state and federal governments.
“If their turnout is low, it may signify that even PH will now have to start worrying about their influence among the non-Malay voters on whether their influence is declining. Nonetheless, it is also possible that this would have nothing to do with PH’s popularity among the non-Malays as there is a general trend that the outstation voters may not come back to vote in the by-election,” he added.
Azmi noted that the complacency of incumbent supporters could further dampen turnout, as they may wrongly assume the seat is secure.
Issues of race and religion to feature prominently
While national issues often shape state by-election narratives, Chin observed that there are currently no fresh controversies that could dramatically shift voter sentiment against BN.
Instead, he said, PN is likely to resort to familiar ethnoreligious themes to galvanise its base, though such rhetoric is unlikely to significantly sway fence-sitters or core BN and PH supporters.
Azmi pointed out that PN has already begun criticising the BN-PH partnership at both state and federal levels, attempting to undermine voter confidence in the coalition’s unity and effectiveness.
He added that PN would likely capitalise on recent controversies such as the relocation of the 130-year-old Dewi Sri Pathrakaliamman temple in Kuala Lumpur and the Jalur Gemilang misprint incident involving two Chinese-language newspapers.
“PN used this particular issue to show that Pakatan Harapan do not have the guts, do not have the bravery to impose maximum penalty towards Sin Chew and Kwong Wah Yit Poh,” said Azmi.
On April 17, Sin Chew Daily’s chief editor Chan Aun Kuang and deputy chief sub-editor Tsai Shwu San were detained and later released after three hours of questioning over the flag issue.
Indian voters remain a key bloc
Indian voters make up 14.3% of the Ayer Kuning electorate, positioning them as a crucial swing group in the by-election. Chin, when asked about the potential influence of the KL temple issue on Indian voter sentiment, said only a small number may be persuaded to support PSM in protest, while the majority are likely to stay loyal to BN and PH.
“These two parties are part of the government, be it state or federal. Realistically, they are the better choice. I would say these current trending issues may affect, but not to the level of significantly affecting the Indian voters’ support for the BN plus PH coalition,” he said.
Chin further noted that Indian voters are unlikely to shift towards PN, as its messaging and image remain largely unappealing to non-Malay constituents. – April 22, 2025